Manfred Broy: Digital transformation a game changer for informatics as a scientific discipline



maybe III tell your story I completely agree with see what the unwashed said but I think he was thinking about whole stuff a bit too narrow but at 200 years ago we had a revolution this boss of evolution of production machinery now we have a revolution which is a revolution of information machinery and you can discuss which of these revolution is more significant what is more severe I was leading a study about seven years ago for the chairman Academy of technical sciences architec about cyber-physical systems and there we try to understand all the stuff coming and we are in between now speed is very fast and we developed for a number of application area scenarios including production and a few of my colleagues who listened to the results of our study said oh that's an interesting stuff let's call it industry 4.0 and now the whole world talks about industry 4.0 but as I said too young for me the interesting part of what's going on is not only what happens to economy or what happens to the companies the interesting story is what happens to society what happens to us because it's really going to change us so teaching the transformation is much more than looking at economy it's looking at all types of things involved and it is run by digital technology and we just heard a very interesting example 5g is a good example of the fast development of Technology and it's also an example of infrastructure because 5g will be part of our infrastructure and it's important also to look at the development in uses of digital applications because the technology and the infrastructure is only interesting if we run applications and of course digital business models and it will be changing economy and industry but it will also change society politics science education and private life I am currently the funding founding president of the Bavarian cent of digitization and we try to understand what's going on there and also try to understand what we can do we means the government of Bavaria and to keep it very simple because you can talk for a long time about those stuff you can separate things in a number of sections one section is digital technology we have heard about that to keep it short it's hardware and software the next thing is digital infrastructure and there's a lot of digital infrastructure already around devices embedded systems networks 5g will be part of our digital infrastructure and it's so important why is it so important because now according to the amount of digital infrastructure around we can around a number of applications without changing anything in the physical world we just change something in the software world a new app if it's interesting it's around the world within a few days and I think this is remarkable and we have those digital applications and the Catholic applications are literally everywhere there is no subject which is not affected by that leads us to business opportunities to see rapid change of business and Yun was talking about that I'm a little bit more skeptical than he perhaps shares are some issues which really make us believe that we have the best of all worlds now but of course there are a number of things to think about and if they are also all the political stuff is related to digital technology the interesting question is which Trump have been elected without digital technology that it's not so clear and we will see how these technology will change the life of individuals in their behavior in understanding of the world and that relates to education and a lot of other stuff and the dynamics of what's going on results from the intensive mutual reinforcement of these different fields who will be transformed well the individuals the economy the education the science the technology the environments or society state politics and government literally everything we have heard a lot about the change of economy so I can be charged short about that we have really innovative functionality we work a lot with cars in bavaria we have large cars manufacturers in our country and if you study what's happening to cars within the last 50 years you know what I mean the first little pee pee piece of software came into cars exactly five 50 years ago it was on ignition systems it was done by Bosch and it was very very small and then we have seen in a number of steps that I'm not going to explain the steps that cars go on and on and on they become really driving computers and today I would say one third of the development work in the car industry is Computer Sciences informatics and this is true not only for cars it's true for nearly all other fields and we have this modular value change in this automation and all the scaling effects which Jung was talking about let's shortly look at the drivers of technology you know this gentleman his name is Gordon Moore he invented the first integrated circuit he started the company Intel and he developed what is called Moore's Law today actually it's not the law it's an observation and the observation was true for a long time and will be true for some time nobody really knows how long I think you will have a presentation at the end of this day on Moore's Law and how long it will survive but it's interesting to look at that and they look at that it means that I just look at the computing power computing power increases by a factor of two every one and a half here and it's an easy calculation to find out that it means that we have a factor of a hundred of increase within ten years and these numbers look very innocent but what it really means can be translated into what you can observe if you look for instance at cars if you take an average car today they fell we golf then it might have a hundred horse powers and if he would have the same increase in power within it within ten years he would cost the same as today and would be have ten thousand horse powers then you see how this technology develops and this is true for networks too and it's true for devices to store stuff but it would be nothing without software and software is really able to build a lot of interesting applications may be the biggest machine which was ever built by human being is our telephone system and it's interesting to see that after we had the internet and after we have the World Wide Web only a few people but not much money built Skype and Skype is an application which offers you everything the telephone offers you and even a bit more because you can have images of the people you are talking to and there you see the flexibility of software and all these things together makes this enormous speed and then we if you look at technologies we see things like data processing embedded system personalized computation high performance computing search engines mobile communication data analytics and now autonomous systems more and more and you see the areas of application and then you understand the dynamics what's going on here and there's an interesting observation I just quote Latour here change things commence it will change the entire social theory that goes with them that the changes that come from the digital technology from the digital revolution will change our whole society including the social theory that goes with them and you can observe that and therefore the question whether we have the best of the worlds you can think of is an interesting one but we have to discuss it not with only looking at business and not lonely looking at the technical possibilities but looking at what are the results of all that what are the drivers the application I think you know that then I can be very short we have the Internet and we have the World Wide Web and it permits an access to a worldwide a sea of knowledge actually it's interesting that nobody was foreseeing the internet and nobody was foreseeing the World Wide Web there were a number of future scientists which were thinking about the future of technology but nobody were thinking about the World Wide Web it came out of the blue more or less and the World Wide Web is a sea of information as I said and we have seen a number of developments social networks but a lot of impact not just to business but also to society we see more and more of the Semantic Web which means interpretation of the information you find there which traditionally was only interpreted in a syntactic way and more and more is interpreted in a semantic way we have already see future internet today after 10 years of smartphones and we go more and more in the internet of things in services we say the Internet of Tinga in Germany and then and of things we have heard about that it's a simple idea everything gets connected to the Internet why is that but because it's very convenient if you interview connect a lightbulb to the internet it means that you can control it maybe you can get prediction whether it will get into a trouble enough in some time and you can know whether it has trouble whether it has a defect and therefore we see a lot of devices connected to the Internet and this or gate change is a rule because if somebody has a connection of the lightbulb to the Internet it gets data so it gets stated when the light is on and off and then it knows information about the people using that lightbulb so it's a it's a it's a technical development but it will change the whole society here you see a number of predictions how much devices will be connected to the Internet some people talk about 50 billions I have seen the estimations about 200 billions it doesn't really matter whether it's 20 or 50 or 200 billions it's quite clear that this is a development we will see and so a lot of the things which I mentioned here will be connected to the Internet and from the Internet of Things we will go on to the cyber physical systems what's the difference between the Internet of Things I don't like the term Internet of Things a lot because the interesting thing is not to connect things to the Internet the interesting thing is to connect systems to the Internet what is it different between a thing and the system well a system has software itself and therefore our system can both use services of the Internet in a much more clever way and at the same time interact with the Internet in a much more interesting way and so we will see that our internet gets real-world aware what does that mean well it will get information in real time out of the physical world and therefore can use this information to do a lot of things and we have seen already many things of that advanced the systems is an example we see in the cars today adaptivity I remember when we first discussed in research projects with our car industry partners they said adaptive system in a car never no way today they are completely convinced that this is the right direction to go we talk about not just in cars also it's interesting to talk about autonomy in media otama knee in in the in the internet we talk about real-time access from devices we have seen in the 5g that we are developing devices that will be able to act very very fast over wireless LAN connections and over the Internet we will see sensors and actuators everywhere and the human in the loop my son just came back from China and I talked to him the other day and he said it's interesting to see how China developed it's also interesting to see how much sensors how much beat your cameras everything is in the public and it means that a country like China can observe nearly everything in public over the internet and this means that you have maybe read the book 1984 what you is written there is completely different what we see today but the possibilities we see today are beyond what is in the book and of course the interesting stuff there is a human in the loop we will see that these devices are closer to the human being than any other thing we have seen before and so we sees the cyber physical systems the systems that interact with the Internet and we will see that these cyber physical systems make sure that the Internet becomes real world and the embedded systems get connected to cloud services and that means that even today we have not one system we have a lot of systems and all are connected so we have a huge global general systems and we will see no devices which are not connected to other devices and since connectivity is transient it will be too it connected to everything and an issue as you know is security security is an unsolved problem and a lot of the experts in the field if you listen carefully say there is no solution so we will live in a world with a lot of digital devices and we will not have a perfect security maybe it's not so bad because this is how life is there is no perfect security anyway but we have to understand what this means in protecting data protecting against digital attacks protecting critical infrastructure protecting privacy and we have to discuss at which moment we apply the technology and we take the risk and whether there are situations where we don't apply technology because we want to take the risk so we are in the challenges well beyond Europe here one of the big challenges is that Europe is very weak in Internet technology here I have the numbers of the leading companies that control the Internet and if you look at the companies here you have Google you have Microsoft you have facebook you have Yahoo you're a freaking media foundation you have Amazon here you have a Asian company so if you look at all the companies they are just North American companies on the top and if you go a little bit down you find a number of Asian companies and we all expect this is Asian companies will step-by-step get higher here there is no European company what does that mean it's not so clear at all but it means that at least in one part of digital technology which is very very important and that's general connectivity and general infrastructure in the world wide web of information Europe has a very very weak position let's just talk about other key information innovation drivers well the real word indicates part of the cyber space I'm quite convinced that our children and our grandchildren they will not they will not see a lot of difference between digital technology in the real world digital technology is part of the real world digital technology will be very closely connected with the real world so embedded systems are part of physical use data and services from the internet embedded systems will be closely integrated with cyberspace system of systems with the Internet as integration platforms we will see a lot of acquainted reality and the fusion of the digital and the physical world and it's on the way and I have already mentioned human factors the human in the loop it's interesting if you look at C's wonderful devices and for me as a guy who worked in computer science for quite a while and when I started to start a to to write my first program sets already 40 years ago and or more than 40 years ago for us a device like this would be like magic if you would have given me such a device 40 years ago I would believe this is impossible so we have seen a development which is really unbelievable and now if you look at the way people make use of these devices it's interesting because you realize that these devices are very close to the people the people consider these devices as part of themselves as part of their personality there are interesting studies if you take away the smartphone from a user the user finds this as a loss like amputation so in a sum in some sense we already cyborgs the use these devices in a way as they would be part of our body and that will go on we will have augmented human identity by digital technology and of course there are a lot of engineering challenges it would be a pleasure to talk a long time about that because I'm an informatics guy so I could talk about architectures and I could talk about requirements engineering how you do the data analytics on the dependability I just wanted to mention because this is over often overlooked if you look at the successful companies and that was more or less the message of young Bosch if you look at the successful companies they all understand how to do software engineering and systems engineering and say understand how to do the human factors because if you look at the smartphone how it was invented by Apple one of the real interesting stuff is not only the technical integration there one of the real interesting stuff stuff is how it is adapted to what people find easy to use and the first time you see as my granddaughter is doing when she goes to the television and he wants to have a new station see go so television makes like this and is very disappointed that it doesn't work because this is a kind of a paradigm she finds perfect and should work everywhere and so we have now a deep impact on human behavior this South devices it has to do with acceptance it has to do with human social media networks and it has to do with integrated socio-cyberneering professional example is air traffic control if you study how a pilot today does his job it's an interesting the division of responsibility between the embedded system in the airplane the pilot and the air traffic control and if a if the system realized that the pilot has cognitive overload it takes over and that's one of the reasons we have not a lot of accidents in air traffic and we will see this in other areas as well software will be everywhere data will be collected from everywhere and we have the characteristics of digitization and I don't have the time to explain all that stuff to you just wanted to show you that there are a number of principles which if you understand them you understand how digital technology works I mentioned Moore's law we mentioned the high speed and one of the rules is die fast if something works it's fine if doesn't work get away with it go away from it scaling minimal transaction cost we have this C saying of the winner takes it all availability always on unlock alized everywhere disruptive change survival of the creative paradigm shift software is eating the world access to resource is more important than ownership sharing economy new business models innovative forms of cooperation digital ecosystems networking platform companies and cratis economy zero marginal costs and these are the driving factors which make it happened that we have a situation we never had before in in the economy of the world so some of the most expensive companies on I should say all of the most expensive company and just take google how old is Google less than 20 years and it's the largest the most expensive company's company of the world we had never thought before that the company can get within 20 years the most expensive company and this is the explanation because these are the driving forces of digital economy and what are the key issues software's key technology if you look at how Google does software technology you understand what I mean Google does not employ a person even if they use says it's a look for a financial officer who is not able to program they take it really serious and software is understood not only at Google at all there is more and more as key technology functionality platform application nets development dependability the mastering of software technologies – is central for information and as a computation competition success factor and again in a way said we understand the digital technology is closer to the human than any other technology before and net internet enterprises have a more dire contact to the customers how no one else this is another thing European companies did not understand for a long time and even some of them do not understand it today if you buy a car and this is this is the same for a sub-sub car or Volvo or a German car if you buy a car you never talk to the production company of the car you buy it you buy it from a car shop and you drive it five years and you never talk to the company we produced the car it's ridiculous talk about Google you never bought anything from Google but you talk to Google every day in Germany 95% of the people use Google as their major the most interesting search engine and they use it ten times a day and therefore Google knows exactly what the people are interested in and they can do experiments every time they want to and so human sensing engineering is see success factor then you understand how to use software and here I will not go into details due to lack of time you can do a SWOT analysis for informatics in Europe since I'm responsible for the development of teacher technology in Bavaria we are very careful visa SWOT analysis we want to understand what are our strengths what is our weaknesses and what are the opportunities and what are the threats and it's an interesting way to look at that and to understand what we can do I will not go into details here I just wanted now to discuss consequences for informatics for computer science first of all we have to go from software to systems engineering why when I started programming the computers were in locked rooms in labs nobody else could touch it besides a computer scientist nobody was really interested in those and we'd web to programming and programming was completely different from the physical world we were doing isolated experiments with those nowadays we go from conventional sequential algorithms to interactive processes the systems are not only directed to the physical world everybody's carrying some stuff with them and we may have to go from abstract dysley digital modeling to real world modeling and what does this mean interaction probabilistic understanding of software understanding time understanding continuous input topology and geography context and human behavior we are part of our reality and so we have to understand reality and how to model those effects in our discipline so the task of computer science of emotion for morticians changes from the design of programs on standalone computers and the solution of medium-sized problems by programming to the development of huge software systems connected to the physical world to data and services in networks in close interaction to users informaticians become designers of digital future worlds and they are part of the strategic leadership in enterprises are they well they are in the huge US companies but in European companies it's not true and this is in addition to what Yann was talking about if we want to change the companies we have to change the way these companies are let and so we need management we need strategic leaders in those companies which understand software which understand business and it understand hopefully also a bit of society and politics and so the role of imitations changes from specialists for for algorithms and data for programs and software to domain expects partners for the system design to designers of new decent business models to strategies found of start-ups well to entrepreneurs so what has changed informatics is a scientific discipline this perhaps the highest economic impact currently disruptive changes of the old economy we've heard that it has a lot of economic impact of subfields that is so heís said companies have to take over these fields this is ananda another interesting observations it is about to change our scientific paradigms if you look at fields like machine learning or robotics we see that some companies in particular US companies are trying to get all the experts in the world because they believe having these experts brings them into a leading position in business and that means that science is taking away from universities how kind of in university and even the best universities in the world cope this google or an amazon when they have 200 300 500 specialists in machine learning if they have people that don't have to teach if they don't have to do stupid administrative processes but can concentrate on this technology and to apply these technologies and that will change and be in computer science see that these technologies have a very very short time until they are relevant to the business and that changes of course the scientific patterns to a large extent as I said digital transformation is not only about economies but also about politics if you look at parts and if you look at fake news you see what I mean our media field is completely changing and therefore we have to understand how digital technology changes that and we have to understand the technology to understand what it means to democracy democracy and to sociological structures teacher technology's changed the way people organize every day I dive into social relationships and it can revolutionize our education systems I talk a lot with teachers these days and I see that the schools are more or less there are some exceptions some experiments but if you take away these experiments our schools are more or less like the schools were before digital technology was coming how do you organize education in a situation where information is in the network every time you want it and unfortunately there is very good information there I always use it but it's also a lot of bad information there you have to learn how to deal with that and that's what schools have to teach and if you teach that you have to teach can teach much less in other ways digital technology makes significantly influenced a political and military power in a rapidly changing world in the role of third world countries if you look at the migration processes we have seen over the last five to ten years they were to a large extent also related to teacher like no technology to just little points to that first of all digital technology allows people in underdeveloped countries to have a much better understanding how developed countries look like oh I should say how developed countries look like over the internet which is not exactly what they are really looking like and at the same time it's would be interesting to have a deep study how semi Croatian streams were changed and controlled by all the all the traffic in the internet and this is just one example these teacher technologies will develop systems they overrule people and determine the work and leisure situation it brings in new threats related to cyber security so how do we respond I think academic informatics has to shape the interaction into interdisciplinary work faculty business is no longer the right way to do that you have to update our curricula in the new topics provide some counterpart through the booming economy educate our students to be prepared for the economy Eder ship to understand the digital revolution their impact we have to learn how to give advice to politics and Enterprise Management they don't know so we have to contribute to the public discussion and you have to develop an ethical position I have the pleasure to be part of a group in Germany which asked by the German Minister of traffic to develop an ethical position for autonomous driving and I can tell you it's not easy so we have to develop a philosophy of science for informatics and I think we are really feeling the winds of change you know Bob Dylan he got famous Prize last year and he has a very nice song and he says then you better start swimming or well sink like a stone for the times they are changing thank you very much thank you Manfred I was hoping you would sing okay thank you and I was just wondering and you were talking about the changes for academia but I was also wondering we've been discussing during the day cross disciplinary the intersection between disciplines and Sciences yeah I said half a sentence already but I can go a little bit deeper what I what I observe is just discussed it also is in in the break what I observe is that we are now in the situation that over the last years digital technology is so important for other faculties that we have two observations one observation is now computer science mirrors what's going on in all the other faculties because they are studying these different applications and at the same time of course other fields say oh computer science brings in completely new challenges so we take over computer science to a certain extent so we double so to speak the faculties and which is ridiculous I think the faculty structure is not very good in dealing these digital technologies and so we have to think about how to organize universities much more effectively such that people work together if you look at companies and when I try to help them to go into the digital H we always make sure that they develop an organization where they have a tight interaction between experts and digital technologies and the application fields and I think University should do the same they work I work with public sector development and when I have universities as clients they are based on how universities are built and which is great but they're also one of the most siloed and most difficult organizations to change what are the oldest organization in the world churches yes ii audits universities and judges and the legal system so anyone else who wants to challenge me with a question me to give to manfred of course I mean well actually I was not so happy about this notion of industry 4.0 because a lot of people were understanding industry 4.0 as a digitization of production and that's much too narrow I think we have to digitize production yes and it gives a lot of additional possibilities but the real revolution is not there the real revolution of the digital transformation is not in production it's in the way people use services in the way products change in the way the power changes if you if you look at what's going on today look at uber it's a company which owns it's not completely true but literally it owns no car but it runs the largest taxi service of the world and you can see a number of other examples so our economic system is completely changing and all the leading companies Amazon Google abinell well is not true but Facebook are not production companies they do not produce anything in the classical production rate and therefore I believe that industry 4.0 is misleading because it focuses on the wrong well I believe it's insofar interesting for Europe because now the human workforce is not so much important anymore but this was already – a few years ago before people who are talking about digitization and what I believe is interesting is not just digital production but digital engineering to have the whole process of product development in the computer and related to the production process and related to services around it I think this is a very interesting topic to think about and this is the development which I see and of course it's completely related and young was talking a little bit about that – data collecting data and using data in this process thank you we have room for one short question and one short answer anyone up for the task as you know there's a lot of discussion some people in the u.s. talk about the new literacy and they believe that we should teach all pupils programming it's an interesting question it's not for me it's not so clear whether this is true I think we should have we teach all all people all children that they understand the basics of digital technology and not because we have digital technology in everyday life but also because it helps a lot to structure thinking to solve problems and therefore I think there is some basics which you can teach and it's a bit related to mathematics but it's different because it's not just about numbers and therefore I believe yes we should do that but there's a second part of Education this is what I mentioned in a world of devices that handle information you have to learn how to find your way there and finding your way there means that you have to learn much less in other parts and I think school has not realized that's really so far it will please you then – hey that's just last week the Swedish government proposed and that we're going to actually teach programming from young ages in school okay thank you thank you and of course my magic chocolate okay thank you

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